I don’t know where you are getting this, but wherever it is, stay away from it.
The data regarding the business confidence comes from Russian panelists. These are Russian entrepreneurs.
Even Russia’s official data are pessimistic. The Russian Economic Development Ministry has already in September lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0% from the 2.5% it was predicting in April. The Russian Central Bank in October lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 0.5%-1.0% from its July outlook of 1.0-2.0%.
This growth comes apparently solely from the industrial-military complex at the expense of civilian industries. According to Rosstat, Russia’s Federal Statistics Service, total industrial production jumped 3 percent month-on-month in October, though driven largely by defense-related manufacturing. At the same time, according to Rosstat, production of construction materials and glass has been declining for about a year, with output of basic building materials down roughly 11–12 percent over that period.
The auto industry suffered across all categories as vehicle output saw a 8.9% decline in October compared with the previous month and plunged 62% year-on-year (China’s car industry is the big winner here, btw).
Russian Railways, with a debt burden of 4 trillion rubles (43 billion euros), scaled back investment real capital investment in transport by 26% in the first half of 2025, while investment in passenger rail dropped by 48%.
As the military industry is granted preferential treatment - particularly subsidized loans to bear the high interest rates -, Russia’s budget deficit widens, and, again, the civilian industry (here with the exception of very few companies such as some construction businesses that receives similarly subsidies) pays the bill.
It also fuels inflation. Putin has recently announced that the ‘goal’ of an annual inflation rate of 6% for 2025 has been reached, but the Russian Central Bank has a different view and set the key interest rate at 16%, again around 10 percentage points higher then the official inflation rate.
This is a TINY sample of data that paints a devastating picture of Russia’s economy - and it comes from official Russian sources such as Rosstat and directly from the government.
I don’t know where you are getting this, but wherever it is, stay away from it.
The data regarding the business confidence comes from Russian panelists. These are Russian entrepreneurs.
Even Russia’s official data are pessimistic. The Russian Economic Development Ministry has already in September lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0% from the 2.5% it was predicting in April. The Russian Central Bank in October lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 0.5%-1.0% from its July outlook of 1.0-2.0%.
This growth comes apparently solely from the industrial-military complex at the expense of civilian industries. According to Rosstat, Russia’s Federal Statistics Service, total industrial production jumped 3 percent month-on-month in October, though driven largely by defense-related manufacturing. At the same time, according to Rosstat, production of construction materials and glass has been declining for about a year, with output of basic building materials down roughly 11–12 percent over that period.
The auto industry suffered across all categories as vehicle output saw a 8.9% decline in October compared with the previous month and plunged 62% year-on-year (China’s car industry is the big winner here, btw).
Russian Railways, with a debt burden of 4 trillion rubles (43 billion euros), scaled back investment real capital investment in transport by 26% in the first half of 2025, while investment in passenger rail dropped by 48%.
As the military industry is granted preferential treatment - particularly subsidized loans to bear the high interest rates -, Russia’s budget deficit widens, and, again, the civilian industry (here with the exception of very few companies such as some construction businesses that receives similarly subsidies) pays the bill.
It also fuels inflation. Putin has recently announced that the ‘goal’ of an annual inflation rate of 6% for 2025 has been reached, but the Russian Central Bank has a different view and set the key interest rate at 16%, again around 10 percentage points higher then the official inflation rate.
This is a TINY sample of data that paints a devastating picture of Russia’s economy - and it comes from official Russian sources such as Rosstat and directly from the government.